GSB—We Need to Talk! (The Bear Johnson Saga)

GSB—We Need to Talk!

By WeRBadGamers

Listen, we can’t keep putting this conversation off. There’s been a lot of things that we need to talk about and get out in the open. It’s time! Let's talk about the Bear Johnson Saga. 

"Did Dallas win the Bear Johnson situation?"

Dear Glass, 
You know how much I love you. But, if you ever hurt me like this. WE'RE THROUGH...
Yours Truly, 

We all remember that cold winter morning in the days of yore. The GSB world would completely shift on an uneven axis. The unreal, unstoppable, unquestionable, Bear Johnson, who benefited so much from being traded to Dallas, declared the unthinkable. He would be taking his talents elsewhere, out of the city of Dallas, far far North. And in that very rush, cash his last DFS check while enroute to a private plane out of Dallas Field Love. He, like many before him, jumped ship at the opportunity to command their own vessel, but like so few scratched his name off the annual Flying Stallion’s End-of-Season Gala (who would do such a thing...) This exclusive list is not one you can just get back on. You'd have a better chance of becoming an astrophysicist specializing in quantum gravity and string theory than getting back on that list. DM me if you'd like to talk shop on theoretical astrophysics. 

Most of us, especially me, love Glass. He's personable, witty, and generous. And as friends we all want our compatriots to fly and spread their wings, especially, if they see greener pastures elsewhere. The Dallas Flying Stallions embody that principle to a fault as well, they only want what's best for their players, and the league as a whole, but this was oh-so different. No one can really blame them for their dyspnea. This was being left at the altar. All those promises, the shiny ring in sight, the trials and tribulations to get to this point (knowing there are so many more to come). Not to mention, having to diet for 6 months so you can fit the wedding dress. I'm speaking allegorically, but dice through this with me. They were setting their life and future around this move. Because that's what the best and smartest teams do.  

The Bear Johnson Era in Dallas was just about to get started, with the t-shirts and cups being printed in preparation for what was to be a full season of Bear in a Stallion's uniform. Yes, for those concerned, the Dallas shirts with Bear's face on them were donated to some of Jarris's kids across the globe. 

To add insult to injury there wasn't much Pizzo or anyone in the Dallas Front Office could do to keep Bear's jet from taking off. A bevy of contractual agreements had already been signed, Bear's agent purchased him a mansion in Bloomfield Hills, and ownership fees had already been exchanged. And, sardonically, BJ's camp used his last few Flying Stallions pay installments and performance bonuses to fund his new estate. Essentially, Dallas foot the bill all the way around. The situation was not pretty. 

But, what did it really cost? And, was all of this a blessing in disguise? Or did this turn more into a woulda coulda shoulda? I'm super interested in exploring the butterfly effect that took place within this saga. First, because of this situation Dallas got Tavian Tyree, who was being stretched to his limits and still underutilized in Kentucky. Tyree needed to expand his game. He's not a traditional big, and few teams have avenues for that type of player to flourish. The Reserve would survive the loss and do well very well in the draft to replace some of the disparity.

At first, it seemed like a tragedy; like one of those horror movies where no one will make it out alive. Dallas, one of the hottest teams in Season 2 began Season 3 as cold as Bear leaving them in the wind. But, after their game against the Martians in the regular season, something amazing happened, the flip got switched. The Flying Stallions would go on one of the hottest streaks I've ever witnessed. Racking off big wins left and right. The Stallions were back and flying higher than ever, crushing teams and leaving nothing, but the taste of delectable brisket in their wake.  

Tyree, Blaze, and Able would all become All-Stars this season, with Pinkard and Che'rry Je'llo not far behind in the voting polls. Some voids that Johnson left had been filled with Tyree’s athleticism and scoring, Blaze’s uptick in rebounding and defense, and Dallas' identity shift. But, did they reach their highest high? Was their ceiling higher with Bear? This is not a dig at all on Tyree or anyone for that matter. We can do a quick comparative analysis and look at Bear's production from S2 and Tyree's production in Dallas' system for S3.

It's sour grapes, but for those 10 games Bear averaged well above a double-double in Dallas on 14.0 ppg and 13.4 rebounds per game. Tavian finished his first year with 8.6 ppg and 7.7 rpg, but  his 2.1 blocks per game and ability to look outright elite gave him an in edge in all-star voting. We also have to take into account the move from 2k23 to 2k24, as well as significant alterations to sliders, gameflow, and league trends.

So I have three main compounded and bold working theories on if Dallas had somehow been able to keep Bear Johnson. I decided to stay away from advanced analytics and longitudinal examinations. 

Theory 1: 'We Are the Champions!'

• Dallas clinches the championship in Season 3—if Bear Johnson is on the roster. It’s a bold thesis, yet this theory hinges on Johnson returning to his Season 2 form (regular season), coupled with All-Star caliber performances from Kanin Able, Jus Blaze, and major key contributions from Ch'erry Je'llo, Perry Pinkard, and Luke Boudreaux. In this scenario, the trade-off is Tavian's boost in defensive efficiency for Bear’s superior offense and rebounding. Notably, Johnson also averaged 1.5 blocks per game during his tenure in D-Town.  
• In this scenario, Dallas would more than likely have drafted a different type of complimentary piece at Pick 8. They fell in love with Dadika because of cultural fit, but also out of necessity. They could have shopped the pick entirely and potentially gotten a gem veteran or hybrid player from a needy team to add even more offense and defense to what would become the scariest team in S3 by far. We could go through counterfactuals all day. 
• A complex aspect of this theory lies in Dallas trading Knerr mid-season, an event that coincided with a profound and conspicuous shift in their game-planning philosophy. This subtle yet enigmatic ripple may have been all that was needed to set in motion the chain of events that took place in Dallas this season.

Theory 2: 'Square Peg in a Round Hole'

• This is somewhat of an inverse to Theory 1. We all witnessed, with our own eyes, Dallas spend their first 4 games flying in the wrong direction. As I mentioned before, the shift in game style and the build overhaul had a serious effect and played a huge role in this. 
• In this hypothetical, the time spent to figure all of this out would have been too costly. The coaching staff would have devoted too much effort and too many resources into trying to get Bear back to S2 form. Likely to the point of no return. Making him the centerpiece of their game plan for the entire season, hoping that things would just magically resolve. What would Dallas' record had been by the point of realization? We also would miss the production of Able and Blaze, who would have gotten far less touches in an effort to feed the Bear. 
• The nuance in this theory is in knowing Dallas would not sit and wait for a statistical Dunkirk. They'd sell off the dying weight and procure collateral to kickstart a rebuild or get right back into the hunt. Which rolls around to Theory 3.

Theory 3:'Adapt to the Wild'

• As mentioned, this is a play on Theory 2, and falls along the lines of a "What You See is What You Get," type of framing. The current S3 version of Bear Johnson is who Dallas puts out on the court.
• In this theory, the coaching staff intuitively recognizes Bear's struggles early on and takes an extremely pragmatic approach to offset his decline in production. An approach in which they'd shift the team’s entire focus and strategy from one centered around Bear to something far more balanced and team-oriented, which is already very much their modus operandi. They would no longer rely purely on Bear's strengths to win games, and would optimize the flow and efficiency of everything to turn Johnson into something less MVP-like, but far more specialized. He could become a facilitator or transition into more of a defensive anchor.
• In this theory, Dallas may still well be a championship contender. They made the Play-Offs with and without him. However, in this outcome, it would be out of Bear's hands, although somehow still very much up to the level of production that Dallas would be able to get from him in this adaptive role. He could be the piece that gets them over the hump, or be a shadow. But, either way he's there.        

There are a lot of moving variables, but one unmistakable constant. In back-to-back seasons, Dallas has developed two completely different centers and transformed them into All-Star and potentially MVP caliber players. That speaks dividends to their approach. Now, contrariwise, they've also struggled to engineer depth at that position outside of the starter, but they have a clear focus to do that now with Dadika. 

Sadly, the situation for Bear in Michigan was only identical to Dallas’ Season 3 start. The difference is that the Killer Beez's pain and misery would never end. There was no run. There was no Bear in the All-Star game. And Truck Turner, the life and soul of the team, is on his way out. Yet, it's still Bear's team. He is the owner and from all accounts is settling in to continue righting the ship. 

On the flipside, Dallas rattled off double-digit wins and made the GSB Play-Offs (continuing their impressive streak). Honestly, they had every reason in the book to call it quits after the soap opera that occurred. They did not make excuses for themselves, instead they locked in and buckled up in preparation to fly. 

To close the conversation, I offer my most humble opinion. It's rather difficult to neatly box this question in. We all hold a certain degree of subjectivity towards the idea of winning, usually with an inclination towards the more short-term immediate gratification. We naturally gravitate towards the quick results rather than consider the broader, more abstruse perspective. This is all compounded in a sim league, where things happen far quicker than in real life. We do not have years to see a vision materialize, we have days and weeks. With deals taking place in hours. Time is of the essence.

Team-ownership is a far more abstract type of experience and is not something that should only be quantified in the visual results of the team (this aids to the emotional response, but is not always congruent). Yes, wins and losses are the first metrics people throw out in debate. Beautifully, ownership is less about the immediate destination and more about charting the course, guiding your team along that path, and finding the unbelievable satisfaction in the process and journey itself. These intricacies, so often overlooked, generate a deeper sense of purpose beyond the final score. There is so much behind-the-scenes work that may never be seen on the court.

But, the results that Dallas incurred this season were spectacular and undeniable. If I am to judge things purely off of the short term, they easily won this battle and war, and now have an even clearer picture of what they need to do next. Determining things in the long term will take more data and results. Bear may very well find his footing in his second year, or perhaps in year five—or even twenty. Success for him remains a matter of speculation. What is certain is that Michigan is in dire need of a comprehensive rebuild, from top to bottom.

...however, that's a conversation for a completely different day.